热带北大西洋模态年际变率的研究进展与展望

Progresses and Prospects for North Tropical Atlantic Mode Interannual Variability

热带北大西洋模态(NTAM)年际变率是北半球春季热带北大西洋的主导变率。它对热带辐合带的南北移动、周边国家的降水以及全球气候都有显著的影响。通过回顾前人的相关研究,归纳了NTAM的几种形成机制,概括了NTAM对气候系统的影响,综述了模式对于NTAM年际变率的模拟能力,总结了以往研究进展中存在的薄弱环节。最后以此为契机,对未来NTAM的研究方向进行了展望。

North Tropical Atlantic Mode （NTAM） is the leading variability of the boreal spring sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic at interannual timescale. It is also known as the northern pole of the Atlantic Meridional Mode （AMM）. NTAM shows significant impact on the shift of Intertropical Conver-gence Zone, the precipitation of the surrounding countries, the quasi-biennial oscillation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, and the recent global warming hiatus. Despite its distinct influence on global climate, NTAM has not received equivalent attention as other tropical variability （e.g. ENSO）. By revisiting previous studies, this paper summarized the triggers and mechanisms responsible for the evolution and development of NTAM, including re mote forcing from ENSO, south tropical Atlantic as well as North Atlantic Oscillation （ NAO）, local air-sea coupling, and the interactions among different triggers. Also, this paper detailedly introduced the ability of CMIP5 （The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project） model simulation. The prominent model biases over the equatorial Atlantic significantly limit the study of NTAM. Finally, a future prospective of NTAM interannual variability was presented.