摘要
基于调查资料及气象数据,绘制相应的散点图,用其分析蚜虫种群动态并建立尖角突变模型.利用回归分析方法和SPSS软件,确定模型中的正则变量和剖分变量.根据显著性检验,将线性模型、Logistic模型与尖角突变模型做比较,其结果显示尖角突变模型有更好的拟合度.最后,根据突变理论对模型的平衡点和稳定性进行分析,结果可为蚜虫种群的预测预报提供参考.
Based on the investigation and meteorology data, the corresponding scatterplot is drawn. And then the dynamics of aphid populations is analyzed and the cusp catastrophe model is proposed. Using the regression analysis and SPSS software,the regular variable and the split variable of the model are determined.By comparing linear model, Logistic model with cusp catastrophe model, the result shows that the cusp catastrophe model has more fitting degree. Finally, equilibrium and stability of the model analysis is studied by catastrophe theory, the result may provide the reference for the prediction and forecast of aphid populations.
作者
那颖
赵立纯
刘敬娜
NA Ying;ZHAO Lichun;LIU Jingna(College of Mathematics,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian Liaoning 116029,China;School of Mathematics and Information Science,Anshan Normal University,Anshan Liaoning 114007,China)
出处
《鞍山师范学院学报》
2018年第4期1-5,共5页
Journal of Anshan Normal University
关键词
蚜虫种群
尖角突变模型
SPSS
回归分析
拟合度
aphid populations
cusp catastrophe model
regression analysis
fitting degree