全流程视角下大气污染变动的分解分析——以长三角地区为例

Whole Process Decomposition Analysis of Air Pollution:A Case of Yangtze River Delta Region

精确把握影响二氧化硫等大气污染变动的社会经济动因是采取有效防治措施的根本前提。本文在全流程视角下,利用指数分解分析方法将污染物的变动分解为源头防治、过程控制、末端治理和经济规模四个方面的因素,并对长三角地区26个城市"十一五"以来二氧化硫的变动情况进行了实证分析。结果表明:整体上,长三角地区二氧化硫排放总量得到了较好的控制,特别是"十二五"时期,减排效果较为明显;源头防治的潜力未能得到充分挖掘,末端治理仍是长三角地区二氧化硫控制的主要手段,"先污染,后治理"的模式并未得到根本扭转;长三角各城市对二氧化硫的治理措施有不同侧重,可区分为治理领先型、过程依赖型、末端依赖型和治理落后型四种类别。本文提出长三角各城市应改变依赖末端治理控制污染排放的惯性思维,在联防共治的区域合作机制下因地制宜地发展全流程治理模式。

Grasping the soeio-eeonomic causes of changes in air pollution such as sulfur dioxide is the fundamental premise for effective control measures. From the perspective of whole process treatment, this paper applies index de- composition analysis to decomposing the changes of pollutants into four factors：source prevention, process control, end-of-pipe treatment, and economic scale. In addition, the changes of sulfur dioxide in 26 cities in Yangtze River Delta region since the l lth five-year plan are analyzed. The results show that the total quantity of sulfur dioxide e- missions in Yangtze River Delta region has been well controlled, especially during the 12th five-year plan period. The potential of source prevention has not been fully exploited, and the pattern of ＂ pollute first, govern later＂ has not been fundamentally reversed. Cities in Yangtze River Delta region have different focuses on the control measures of sulfur dioxide, which can be divided into four types：leading type, process-dependent type, end-dependent type, and backward type. Cities should change the inertial thinking of relying on end-of-pipe treatment to control pollution emissions, and develop the whole process treatment mode according to local conditions under the joint cooperation mechanism of joint defense and joint governance.