艰险山区高速铁路突发事件演化熵研究

Research on Evolution Entropy of Emergency Events of High-speed Railway in Perilous and Mountainous Areas

艰险山区高速铁路是一个复杂的系统,突发事件产生之后还会经历复杂的演化过程。通过突发事件演化熵的计算,可以实现突发事件演化过程的量化分析。归纳总结艰险山区高速铁路突发事件的概念、特点和分类;基于集对分析理论和熵理论,建立艰险山区高速铁路突发事件演化熵计算模型。统计国内外的铁路突发事件的数据,并以此为依据计算各个突发事件下子系统的演化熵,验证突发事件演化熵模型。计算结果表明,突发事件演化熵模型可以识别不同类型突发事件系统与序参量、系统间不安全状态传导的关系,该方法可以为艰险山区高速铁路突发事件的预防提供参考。

The high-speed railway in perilous and mountainous areas is a complex system. After an emergent event occurs,it may go through complicated evolutionary process. The evolutionary quantitative analysis of the emergent event can be fulfilled by means of the calculation of the evolution entropy of the emergent event. First of all,the concept,characteristics and classification of emergency events of high-speed railway in perilous and mountainous areas are summarized. Secondly,based on set pair analysis theory and entropy theory,the evolution entropy calculation model for emergency events of high-speed railway in perilous and mountainous areas is established. The statistics of railway accidents at home and abroad are collected and the evolution entropy of each subsystem undereach emergency is calculated,and the evolution entropy model of emergency events is verified. The results show that the evolutionary entropy model of emergency events can identify the relationship between different types of emergency systems and order parameters and the transmission of unsafe states between systems. This method can provide references for the prevention of emergencies of high-speed railway in perilous and mountainous areas.