能源经济环境协调发展的最优政策设计——基于CGE模型的实证研究

Optimal Policy Design for Coordinated Development of Energy Economy and Environment Based on CGE Model

针对我国现阶段能耗环境与经济发展的突出矛盾,构建基于KAYA等式和CGE模型的中国能源-经济-环境混合模型,模拟研究不同政策变量调整对能源经济结构变化的敏感程度及各变量对二氧化碳减排成本的有效性。结果表明:工业结构的调整对能源及环境的影响较为显著,且变量呈现高敏感度,边际减排成本呈递增趋势;外贸程度的下调对经济的负面影响较大,且由于对能源及环境数据的低敏感性,其边际减排成本呈递减趋势;能源效率的提高对能源及环境改善最为显著,且不同能源技术对同一政策变量的敏感程度不同。在模拟分析的基础上给出多种优化组合策略及政策含义,提出政策制定应因地制宜,经济发达地区应承担更多的减排义务,经济欠发达地区在环境承载能力范围内优先发展经济等政策建议。

In China, the contradiction between energy consumption and economic growth becomes more and more severe. In view of this situation, the study constructed a Chinese Energy-Economy-Environment CGE model based on KAYA Equation and CGE model. This study quantified the effect degree of analog variable on sensitivity of energy economic structure and cost effectiveness of emission reduction, and then put forward some optimum combination schemes based on the research results. The results show that lowering the proportion of industrial structure will cause a positive impact on energy environment, and because of a high sensitivity on energy environment, the marginal abatement cost on industrial structure present an increasing trend; lowering the degree of foreign trade has a negative effect on economy, and the marginal abatement cost on foreign trade present a downward trend due to a low sensitivity on energy environment; increasing energy efficiency has the most obvious positive effect on energy environment, and different energy technologies have different sensitivities to the same policy variable; according to the combined strategy, we should adjust policies according to local conditions, economically developed area should undertake more obligations of emissions-reduction and economically less developed regions should give a high priority to the economic development within the range of environmental carrying capacity.