同城化背景下公路市政化改建道路交通流预测研究

Study on Traffic Flow Prediction of Highway Municipal Reconstruction under the Background of Urbanization

四阶段法是以1962年美国芝加哥市发表的《Chicago Area Transportation Study》为标志,交通规划理论和方法得以诞生。1962年美国制定的联邦公路法规定凡5万人口以上城市,必须制定以城市综合交通调查为基础的都市圈交通规划,方可得到联邦政府的公路建设财政补贴。该项法律直接促成交通规划理论和方法的形成和发展。开始,交通预测只是关于交通发生、交通分布、交通分配三个阶段的预测;针对同城化背景下的公路改造问题,以市域经济、人口以及机动车发展为基本依据,结合居民出行特征、规划用地布局特征等因素,采用国际国内常用的经典模型——"四阶段"法,即出行产生、出行分布、交通方式划分和交通分配四阶段,进行相应预测年份的流量预测,用于道路设计方案的评价。本次预测使用Transcad交通分析软件进行交通分布和道路交通量分配。

In view of the city road improvement problem under the background of economy, population and development of motor vehicles in Xiamen city as the fundamental basis, in combination with characteristics of resident trip characteristics, planning land use layout, USES the classical model of international and domestic commonly used “four stages” method, namely trip generation, trip distribution, transportation and traffic assignment four stages, accordingly to predict the year traffic forecast, used for road de-sign scheme evaluation. Now Transcad’s traffic analysis software is used for the prediction of traffic distribution and road traffic volume distribution.