基于需求模型的高速公路网规模经济学分析

Economic Analysis of Expressway Network Scale Based on the Demand Model

选取人口密度、人均国内生产总值指标,借鉴道格拉斯生产函数理论建立高速公路网需求模型,并以山西省为例进行实证分析,结果表明,2010年前山西高速公路发展规模基本上满足地区经济的发展需求,而从2011年开始山西高速公路的建设规模已逐步超过了经济发展需求的步伐,项目储备多,出现负债经营多情形。

By selecting the parameters of the population densitythis and GDP per capita, this paper establishes the demand model of the expressway network based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, and takes Shanxi province for example to demonstrate. The demonstration shows that Shanxi provincial expressway’s development scale can meet the regional economic demand before 2010,but its development scale oversteps the regional economic demand since 2011 to 2017. This brings about the investment’s advance and the result of debt management.