分析师繁忙影响分析师预测行为吗?

Does Analysts’ Overloaded Work Effect Analyst Forecast Behavior?

信息竞争性披露导致的分析师繁忙是各国普遍存在的现象，但其对分析师行为的影响尚不明确。本文运用2007-2015年A股上市公司及分析师相关数据，研究了分析师繁忙对分析师预测行为的影响。研究结果发现，信息竞争性披露时，相对于不繁忙的分析师，繁忙分析师发布盈余预测的时效性较差；但其预测信息质量较高且较为大胆；可以用有限关注和信息溢价两个理论对这一现象进行解释。进一步研究发现，明星分析师和工作经验长短不能缓解有限关注带来时效性较差的现象，但在明星分析师和工作经验较长的分析师中，信息溢价带来的质量提高更加显著。本文的研究不但丰富了分析师领域的文献，而且揭示了分析师繁忙对分析师预测行为的影响。

Competing information disclosure is a common phenomenon in many countries, but its impact on the timeliness and quality of analyst forecasts is not clear. Based on the data of a share listed companies and analysts in 2007 -2015, this paper studies the impact of information competitive disclosure on analyst forecasting behavior. The results showed that competing information disclosure, Compared with ＂Not - busy Analysts＂, Busy analysts publish poor timeliness of earnings forecasts; but higher quality and more bold; this is mainly two aspects of limited attention and information spill - over. Further studies showed that the star analysts and work experience can not alleviate the limited attention, information spill -over improve the quality more significantly in star analysts and long work experience analyst.