基于生态环境质量变化视角的资源环境承载能力预警判别与趋势预测

Early Warning Judgment and Trend Prediction of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity from the Perspective of the Ecological Environment Quality Change

以安徽省为例,采用熵值TOPSIS法,对生态环境质量进行了评价;基于生态环境质量变化视角,构建了资源环境承载能力5级预警体系;运用最优加权组合预测方法,就资源环境承载能力预警趋势进行了预测。结果表明:生态环境质量指数由2005年的0.374跃升至2016年的0.660 6,年均增长5.31%;十八大前,生态环境质量指数变化均值为-0.002 5,资源环境承载能力为轻度超载,预警等级为黄色,十八大后,生态环境质量指数变化均值为0.102 2,预警等级为绿色;若按惯性发展模式,"十三五"期间,经济社会发展对资源环境影响将处于其承载范围,预警等级为绿色。研究结果可为管理层定经济社会与生态环境协同演进的规制政策提供决策参考。

In this paper,the eco-environmental quality of Anhui province was evaluated by using TOPSIS method.A five-level early warning system of resources and environment carrying capacity was constructed based on the changes in the quality of ecological environment,and the prediction on the early warning trend of resources and the prediction on the environment carrying capacity was also conducted through the optimal weighed combination forecasting method.The results are shown as follows：（1）the EQI jumped from 0.374 0 in 2005 to 0.660 6 in 2016,with an average annual growth rate of 5.31%;（2）before the 18 th CPC National Congress,the average change of EQI is-0.002 5 when the resources and environment carrying capacity slightly overload with a yellow warning grade;while after that,the EQI reached 0.102 2 with the warning grade turning into green;（3）according to the inertial development mode,the impact of economic and social development on resources and environment will be within its bearing capacity during the thirteenth Five-Year Plan period,and the warning grade will still be green.All results mentioned above can provide decision-making references for the regulatory policy of the harmonious development of economic society and ecological environment.