基于GM(1,1)模型的房地产市场比较法估价的改进

The Improvement of Market Comparison Approach Based on GM(1, 1) Model

本文应用GM(1,1)模型对房地产市场比较法估价进行了改进。通过预测价值时点的价格指数,将可比实例交易价格修正为价格日期时的市场价值,再经过市场交易状况修正、房地产状况修正,从而获得比准价格。最后将改进模型应用于某住宅小区转让价格评估,结果表明GM(1,1)模型预测精度为1级,且该模型比普通的线性回归模型误差更小。

Based on GM （1,1） model, the paper make improvements on real estate market comparison approach. First, predict the real estate price index of value date, and then amend the sale price of comparable property as the price of value date, next amend the sale price by status of transaction and property condition, finally calculate market comparison approach value. The paper also apply this improved model to a house sale appraisal. The resuhs show that the prediction precision level of GM （1, 1） model is 1, and it＇s more accurate than normal linear regression model.