基于粒子群投影寻踪插值法的辽宁省水资源系统脆弱性评价

Evaluation on Vulnerability of Liaoning's Water Resources System based on the Interpolation Method of Particle Swarm Projection Pursuit

本文结合DPSIR理论从水资源复杂系统的角度构建了水资源系统脆弱性评价指标体系,然后利用差值型曲线、粒子群算法、投影寻踪以及大样本数据构建评价模型;并以辽宁省为例利用模型分别从系统驱动力、外在压力、脆弱性状态、系统影响以及响应程度等方面评价了其脆弱性。研究表明:水资源基础条件薄弱已成为制约区域水资源系统脆弱性的关键性因素,并且资源型缺水在未来一段时间较难发生改变。

Based on the DPSIR theory, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of vulnerability through complex water resources system, and then builds an evaluation model by the differencevalue curves, particle swarm optimization, projection pursuit and large sample data. Taking an example of Liaoning province, it gives the evaluation on the vulnerability of water resources in systematic driving forces, external pressure, status of vulnerability, impacts and response degree respectively by the model. The research results show that the weak basic condition of water resources is a key factor which restricts the vulnerability of regional water resources system, and it is hard to change the resourceoriented water shortage in the coming days.