摘要
基于2006—2015年全国30个省市的面板数据,运用固定效应模型探讨房价波动的影响因素、房价涨势的区域异质性及时期差异性,并通过回归结果计算各因素对房价波动的驱动力。研究结果表明:(1)从全国层面看,需求仍然是驱动中国房价上涨的重要因素之一,成本因素对房价的上涨有一定的推动作用,城镇居民人均财政支出对房价波动的影响显著;(2)从区域上看,成本因素和需求因素是推动东部地区房价上涨的关键因素,而中西部地区房价上涨则主要归因于需求因素;(3)从房价上涨的不同阶段来看,2006—2010年,需求因素和成本因素共同推动房价的上涨,2011—2015年需求因素是房价上涨的主要原因。研究认为,建立多主体供应、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度,抑制购房需求,是遏制房价上涨的关键。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2015,the Fixed-Effects Model was used to explore the influencing factors of house price volatility,the regional heterogeneity and time differences of housing price increase,and the regression results were used to calculate the driving force of various factors on the fluctuation of housing price. The results show that:( 1) From a national perspective,demand is still an important factor driving the rise of housing prices in China. Cost has a certain impetus to the rise of housing prices;and the per-capita fiscal expenditure of residents has a significant impact on housing price fluctuations.( 2) From the regional point of view,the cost and demand are the key factors to promote the housing prices in the eastern region,while the rising prices in the central and western regions are mainly due to the demand factor.( 3) From the different phases of rising house prices,the demand and cost factors jointly promote the rise of house prices from2006 to 2010; the demand factor is the main reason for the rise of house prices from 2011 to 2015. According to the research,establishing a multi-agent supply system,multi-channel guarantee system and rent-purchase system to curb housing purchase demand is the key to curbing housing price increases.
作者
陈琳
杜海涛
谭建辉
周耀旭
CHEN Lin;DU Haitao;TAN Jianhui;ZHOU Yaoxu(School of Management,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510006,China)
出处
《广州大学学报(社会科学版)》
2018年第8期65-74,共10页
Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition
关键词
房价涨势
影响因素
区域异质性
时期差异性
increase of housing price
influencing factors
regional heterogeneity
time difference