基于二元边际的中美货物贸易不平衡问题分析

Dual-Margin Analysis of Sino-US Imbalanced Trade in Goods

通过构建VAR模型并对二元边际的影响因素进行实证分析和检验,实证结果显示:目的国经济规模、目的国劳动生产率和多边贸易阻力与二元边际之间存在长期均衡关系,不同影响因素对二元边际的冲击力度和贡献度不同。对中国二元边际影响因素的研究发现:与扩展边际相比,影响因素对集约边际的冲击持续时间更长;目的国经济规模对扩展边际和集约边际的冲击都是正向的;目的国劳动生产率二元边际的冲击都不太明显;多边贸易阻力主要通过集约边际发挥作用。对美国二元边际影响因素的研究发现:目的国经济规模主要通过集约边际发挥作用;目的国劳动生产率对贸易额的负向作用主要通过扩展边际来实现;多边贸易阻力对贸易额的正向作用主要通过集约边际来实现。

This paper constructs the VAR model by selecting the variables such as economic scale, bilateral trade cost, multilateral trade resistance,labor productivity and so on. The empirical results show that there is a long - term equilibrium relationship between these factors and the dual marginal. The impact strength and contribution degree of different influencing factors on duality margin are different. A study of the marginal factors influencing China＇ s duali- ty finds that impacts of influencing factors on intensive margins last longer than expanded margins. The impact of the economic scale of the destination country on the extended margin and intensive margin is positive; the impact of labor productivity in the destination country on the dual margin is not too obvious; the multilateral trade resistance mainly plays its role through the intensive margin： The study of the dual marginal factors influencing the U. S. illustrates that： the size of the destination country＇ s economy mainly plays its role through intensive margin; the negative effect of the country＇s labor productivity on the trade volume is mainly achieved through extended margin; the positive effect of the multilateral trade resistance on the trade volume is mainly achieved through intensive margins.