摘要
[目的/意义]合理规划添置未来朗读亭数量,提高使用效率,减少空闲率和排队等候时间,避免造成读者流失和资源浪费。[方法/过程]依据统计学、排队论、时间序列预测等相关理论研究优化配置方案,选定评估对象(上海健康医学院南苑图书馆),采集相关数据统计分析,计算关键参数和运行指标。[结果/结论]根据实际运行指标参数(损失率、利用率等)及其相应的范围做分析比较,给予当前最优配置说明;根据时间序列相关统计量的分析和预测数据,制定合理预算计划。
[Purpose/significance] The paper is to make rational planning to add the amount of reading booths, so as to improveutilization efficiency, reduce idle probability and queuing times, and avoid the loss of readers and waste of resources. [Method/process] Based on statistics, queuing theory, time series prediction and other related theories to research the configuration scheme, the paper selects the evaluation object (Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences Nanyuan Library) to collect relevant data for statistical analysis and calculating the key parameters and operational indicators. [Result/conclusion] The paper makes analysis andcomparison based on actual operating index (loss rate, utilization rate, etc.) and their corresponding ranges to provide the current optimal configuration, then develop a reasonable budget plan based on forecast data of time series related statistics.
作者
孙龙杰
俞凯军
Sun Longjie;Yu Kaijun(Library of Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences,Shanghai 201318)
出处
《情报探索》
2018年第10期20-24,共5页
Information Research
基金
2016年长三角地区高校图书馆联盟-图书情报研究基金"基于混沌分形理论的图书情报应用研究"(项目编号:2016B018)成果之一
关键词
分层抽样
系统损失率
时间序列分析
stratified sampling
system loss rate
time series analysis