我国外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的研究

On the Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserve and Inflation in China

改革开放以来,我国的对外开放程度加大,大量的外币涌入国内,使得我国的外汇储备规模逐年增长。在外汇储备增长的同时,我国的通货膨胀水平也在逐年提高。因此,通货膨胀与外汇储备两者具有怎样的关系,非常值得研究。消费者物价指数通常作为评定通货膨胀水平的标准,因此取2012-2017年我国的外汇储备额和消费者物价指数的月度数据作为研究的样本,在货币数量论的理论基础上运用格兰杰因果检验等方法研究两者之间的关系,并在实证结果的基础上提出相应的政策建议。

Since the reform and opening - up, the scale of foreign exchange reserves in China is increasing year by year. At the same time, the pressure of inflation in China is also increasingly prominent. Whether there is a causal relationship between foreign exchange reserves and inflation is a problem worthy studying. The con- sumer price index is usually the standard to assess the level of inflation. Selecting the monthly data of China＇s foreign exchange reserves and the consumer price index from 2012 to 2017, this research adopts Granger causali- ty test based on the monetary quantity theory to study the relationship between them, and present corresponding policy suggestions.