“全面二孩”政策下的人口数量与年龄结构预测

Prediction of population size and age structure under universal two-child policy

针对二孩政策对中国未来人口的影响,综合分析人口总数与人口年龄结构等数据,建立阻滞增长模型与Leslie模型,使用Matlab软件编程求解,对人口总数与人口年龄结构进行预测,研究得出:从人口总数的角度而言,"全面二孩"在短期内有助于增加人口数量,但是长期内作用并不明显;从人口年龄结构的角度而言,"全面二孩"可以延缓老龄化趋势,但是效果相对较差.

In view of the influence of the two-child policy on the future population of China, the data such as the total population and the population age structure were analyzed synthetically. The block growth model and the Leslie model were established. The Matlab was used to solve the population and the population age structure was predicted. The results showed that the universal two-child policy help increase the population in the short term from the perspective of the total population, but the long-term role was not obvious; from the perspective of the population s age structure, the universal two-child policy can delay the aging trend, but the effect was relatively poor.