基于气象数据的区域电网污闪风险评估研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Regional Power Grid Pollution Flashover Based on Real-Time Weather Data

在分析气象数据与电网污闪参数之间的多维非线性关系基础上,按气象预报分区规则,将福建省电网划分成69个网格区域,根据实时气象预测数据对福建电网各区域进行污闪风险预测及评估,并建立区域电网污闪风险评估模型。为验证预测模型的有效性,模拟不同的等值盐密值和环境气象条件,针对污闪预测模型进行了一系列人工污秽试验,试验结果表明,模型预测结果基本满足工程需要,具有工程应用价值。

On the basis of analyzing the multi dimensional nonlinear relationship between the weather data and the poilu tion flashover parameters, Fujian power grid is divided into 69 mesh areas according to the weather forecast zoning rules. The pollution flashover risk of each mesh area is predicted and assessed based on the real time weather forecast data. The region power grid pollution flashover risk assessment model is built. In order to verify the validity of the forecasting rood el, different equivalent salt deposit density （ESDD） values and environmental meteorological conditions are simulated. A series of artificial pollution tests show that the results of the forecasting model basically meet the engineering needs and have engineering application value.