最优组合预测模型在中国天然气需求预测中的应用

The Optimal Combined Forecasting Model and its Application in Forecasting the Natural Gas Demand in China

发展天然气工业是目前国家的一项重要政策,已被写入中国的"十三五"规划,因而合理地预测中国天然气的需求对国家制定能源政策非常重要.提出了一种基于最小二乘法的组合预测模型,并给出了对应模型参数的计算方法,利用GM(1,1)模型和SIGM模型以及2002—2017年的数据建立了预测模型,同时利用2002—2017年的数据对模型的准确性进行了评估,最后利用组合预测模型对2018—2022年中国天然气需求量进行预测,预测结果发现本模型优于其他单项预测模型,为天然气需求预测提供了新的思路.

Developing natural gas industry is an important policy and has been written into the 13th Five -Year Plan of China; therefore reasonably forecasting the demands of natural gas in China is of great importancefor the government to make energy policies. To this end, basing on the least squares method, in this paper, theauthors propose a combined forecasting model, and also present the method of calculating the parameters of ourmodel correspondingly. Through utilizing the GM （1,1） model and SIGM （ 1,1 ） model and the data from years2002 to 2017, they establish the forecasting model, and then, by using the data from years 2002 to 2017 to eval-uate the accuracy of our model, last but not least, the authors forecast the natural gas demands of China for years2018 to 2022 with their model. The results show that the combined forecasting model outpefforms other single pre-diction models and thus a new approach is provided for forecasting demands of natural gas in China.