城镇化、经济增长、农民收入相关性分析

Correlation analysis of urbanization, economic growth and farmers' income

通过构建VAR模型,运用协整理论、因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法,厘清城镇化、农民收入、经济增长三者之间的关系。结果表明:三者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;城镇化与农民收入、农民收入与经济增长、城镇化与经济增长均只存在单向因果关系,但任意两者的组合对第三者都有显著影响;高经济增长对农民收入有明显的正向促进作用,但农民收入对城镇化的促进作用在一段时期内不明显。

By constructing VAR model, the relationship among urbanization, peasants＇ income and economic growth isclarified by means of co-integration theory, causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results prove that these three factors maintain a long-term stable equilibrium relationship. But there is only one-waycausal relationship between urbanization and peasants’ income, peasants ‘income and economic growth, urbanization andeconomic growth, any combination of the two factors can affect the other obviously. High economic growth hassignificant positive effect on the farmers＇ income, but the impact of promotion of farmers’ income on the urbanization isunapparent in a period.