基于EFAST法的多管火箭射击密集度全局灵敏度分析

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Affecting Factors of Firing Dispersion of Multiple Launch Rockets System Based on EFAST Method

为定量分析各种随机因素(弹、炮、气象环境等)对射击密集度的影响程度,对多管火箭射击密集度的影响因素进行全局灵敏度分析。基于火箭飞行动力学方程建立火箭弹落点计算模型,采用傅里叶幅值灵敏度检验扩展法(extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test,EFAST)对落点计算模型进行全局灵敏度分析,并对某122 mm多管火箭炮进行分析计算。分析结果表明:火箭弹的质量误差及弹体的起始扰动是影响射击密集度的主要因素,各随机因素参数间存在一定的交互作用,EFAST计算量较小、结果直观清晰、便于分析。

To analyze the influence of random factors such （rocket, launcher, meteorological environment, etc.） on firing dispersion quantitatively, the global sensitivity analysis was adopted. The calculation model of rocket falling points was established based on the flight dynamics equations of rockets and a global sensitivity analysis method, namely the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test （EFAST）, was introduced and applied to the parameter sensitivity analysis of the model. As an example, the global sensitivity analysis was carried out on a 122mm multiple launch rockets system. The analysis results show that the mass error and initial disturbances are the major factors influencing the firing dispersion; there are certain interactions between random factors in the model; EFAST has the advantages of minor calculation and the results are more intuitive, clearer and easier to analyze.