近20年我国国防支出与经济增长关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship between National Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China in the Past 20 Years

以1997年到2017年间国防支出与GDP的数据为基础,对近20年来我国国防支出与经济增长的关系进行了探讨,并进一步地分析了在军民融合过程中经济建设与国防建设之间的发展关系。首先,通过描述性统计、相关性分析、回归分析等方法,初步探讨了国防支出与GDP之间的关系;然后基于VAR模型进行了相关的计算和分析验证;最后综合这些方法,对结果进行了较为系统全面的讨论。结果显示,近20年来,我国国防支出与经济增长基本呈正相关关系,经济增长与国防支出能够相互促进,呈现一种良性的关系。长期来看,不仅经济的增长有利于军费投入的提高,反过来国防支出也可以调节经济总量,促进现有资源的充分利用,从而促进经济增长。这从侧面反映出近年来我国国防建设与经济建设、安全与发展能够实现统筹兼顾、军民融合总体发展成效显著,建设军民一体化的国家战略协调能力正在不断提高。

Based on the data of defense expenditure and GDP from 1997 to 2017, this paper discusses the relationship between China s defense expenditure and economic growth in the past 20 years, and further analyzes the relationship between economic construction and national defense construction in the process of military-civil integration. Develop relationships. Firstly, through descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression analysis and other methods, the relationship between defense expenditure and GDP is preliminarily discussed; then the relevant calculation and analysis are carried out based on VAR model; finally, these methods are combined and the results are A more systematic and comprehensive discussion. The results show that in the past 20 years, China s defense expenditure has been positively correlated with economic growth. Economic growth and defense spending can promote each other and present a benign relationship. In the long run, not only economic growth is conducive to the increase in military spending, but in turn, defense spending can also regulate the economic aggregate and promote the full use of existing resources to promote economic growth. This reflects from the side that in recent years China s national defense construction and economic construction, security and development can achieve overall consideration, and the overall development of military-civilian integration has achieved remarkable results. The national strategic coordination capability for building military-civilian integration is constantly improving.