基于MOS方法的宁德海区风的预报检验分析

Validation of wind forecast based on MOS method at the Ningde coastal region

基于WRF模式的预报产品,利用MOS方法预报宁德沿海24个站点的风向、风速,并给出2014年1—12月的预报评估结果。结果表明:MOS对宁德海区风向风速的预报效果优于WRF,其对夏季风速和冬季风向的预报效果最好,预报误差随预报时效的延长而不断增大,白天的预报误差比夜间的大。MOS预报的风速平均绝对误差由海上向内陆逐渐减小,由北而南逐渐增大;而对于风向的平均绝对误差则是由海上向内陆逐渐增大。除了1级以下风,风力越小,MOS预报的风速准确率越高。MOS对东北风的预报准确率最高,北风和西北风次之,对西南风也有30%以上的预报准确率,而对东南风的预报效果最差。

Based on forecast products from Weather Research Forecasting （WRF） Model, the wind direction and wind speed at 24 oceanic stations along Ningde coastline in 2014 were predicted by MOS method. The results show the MOS has a better prediction at this region than WRF, especially for the prediction of wind speed at summer and wind direction at winter.. The forecast error increases with time and the forecast error at daytime is larger than that at night-time. The mean absolute error of the forecast wind field by MOS performs a spatial distribution characteristic, for wind speed gradually decreasing from the sea to the inland and increasing gradually＂ from north to south, while for the wind direction gradually increasing from the sea to the inland. The lower of wind power, the higher prediction accurate for wind speed （wind power ≥2 level）. The MOS method has the highest forecast accuracy for northeast wind, the north wind and northwest wind, and with a prediction accuracy rate over 30% for southwest wind, and the worst effect on southeast wind.