1951—2015影响广东沿海台风的统计分析

Statistical analysis of the typhoon influencing Guangdong province during 1951—2015

利用日本气象厅发布的台风数据,对1951—2015年影响广东沿海地区的台风从路径变化、源地分布、强度级别3个方面做了统计分析。结果表明:1.平均每年影响广东沿海的台风为4.6次,时间主要分布在7—9月;2.影响广东沿海65%的台风将在广东沿岸登陆,近一半的台风将向北转向,向北转向的台风中57%是超强台风;3.绝大多数台风都生成在东经120°~150°的范围内,占到了总数的77%;4.超强台风次数占到了总数的49%,其源地几乎都分布在东经120°以东的区域,65年中仅有两次例外。这些结论将为广东沿海的防灾减灾工作提供重要参考。

In order to find the activity routines of typhoon, based on the typhoon data published by the Japan Meteorological Agency （JMA） during 1951--2015, the statistical characters of typhoon influencing the Guangdong province were analyzed by studying the change of path, the source of typhoon and the intensity. According to the research, the following conclusions are obtained： 1.The Frequencies of typhoon impacting the Guangdong province averaged 4.6 times a year, the range of time was mostly concentrated over July to September. 2. The whole typhoon have a 65% probability to land the Guangdong province. Half of the whole typhoon probably turned to the north. 57% of typhoons towards northern were super typhoons. 3. The sources of typhoon were distributed on 120°-150°E, concentrating 77% of the all. 4. The frequency of super typhoon concentrated 49% of the all, and its＇ sources almost distributed on the east of 120°E besides twice during the past 65 years. The results will be able to provide some useful references of hazard prevention and hazard reduction for the Guangzhou coastal area.