基于灰色模型的我国海洋产业结构分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of China's Marine Industrial Structure Based on Grey Model

中国的海洋产业近年来发展迅速,但相关产业研究较为匮乏,因此对海洋产业进行定量分析不仅具有理论价值而且具有重要的现实意义。本文基于近十年中国海洋统计公报的数据资料,引入灰色关联度的概念,对各海洋产业之间的关联程度进行了实证分析,发现我国传统海洋产业和新兴海洋产业的结构不均衡现象正逐步改善,但新兴海洋产业仍处于劣势。然后利用灰色预测模型对未来三年海洋产业的发展趋势进行了预测,并提出了一系列针对性政策建议。

China’s marine industry has developed rapidly in recent years, but the research on related industries is scarce. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of the marine industry not only has theoretical value but also has important practical significance. Based on the data of China Ocean Statistical Bulletin in the past decade, this paper introduces the concept of gray correlation degree, and empirically analyzes the degree of association between various marine industries. It is found that the structural imbalance between China’s traditional marine industry and emerging marine industry has been gradually improved, but the emerging marine industry is still in a state of disadvantage. Thus we use the gray prediction model to predict the development trend of the marine industry in the next three years so as to put forward a series of targeted policy recommendations.