人口年龄结构对金融资产价格的影响

The Influence of Population Age Structure to Financial Assets Price

采用61个国家1995—2017年的金融面板数据为总样本,细分为发达国家与发展中国家两个子样本,以系统广义矩(SYS-GMM)实证探析人口年龄结构对金融资产价格的影响。实证表明:总体上看,人口年龄结构与金融资产价格呈倒U型。从人口结构看,个体处于青中年期增加股票债券的需求,踏入老年期,抛售股票债券,直至退出金融市场。从经济体发展差异看,在发达国家,人口年龄结构与股票价格呈倒U型态势,则会抑制债券价格的增长;而在发展中国家,个体则随"青年—中年—老年"的年龄变迁而分别与金融资产价格呈"下降—上升—下滑"的变动态势。因此,随着人口结构向老龄化变迁,应深化金融管理体制改革,根据个体不同生命周期需求,丰富创新金融理财产品。

Using financial panel data of 61 countries in 1995-2017 as an overall sample, subdivided into two sub samples of developed countries and developing countries, explores the conduction mechanism for the population age structure to financial assets price on with system generalized method （SYS-GMM）. The empirical study shows, firstly, the population age structure is inverted U to the financial assets price; secondly, from the perspective of population structure, individuals in the youth and middle-aged would increase the financial asset; old age, selling for financial asset until they were out of the financial markets; thirdly, from the economy development difference, in developed countries, the age structure of the population and the stock price are inverted U, which will inhibit the growth of bond prices; in developing countries, individuals have a ＂decline - rise - decline＂ with financial asset prices, respectively. As the population structure changes to the pattern of old aging, we should deepen the reform of financial management system, according to the individual needs of different life cycle and enrich the financial products innovatively.