输配电价改革对省级电网投资的影响及动态评估方法

Impacts of TDP Reform on Investment of Provincial Power Grid and Its Dynamic Evaluation Method

作为我国新一轮电力体制改革的重点内容,输配电价改革将深刻影响电网公司运营的投资和规划等诸多方面。首先根据输配电价改革的政策方案,建立了省级电网输配电价的核算模型。在此基础之上,提出一种基于系统动力学模型的输配电价改革对电网投资影响的动态评估方法。该方法综合考虑了电网投资评估、电网规划模式和政府监管政策3个方面的影响因素,建立了输配电价与电网投资容量随时间演变的模型,并建立了二者之间因果反馈的量化关系。基于案例仿真计算,量化分析了输配电价改革对省级电网投资的影响及其各种影响因素。

As a key content of the new round of power system reform in China, reform of transmission and distribution price（TDP） will profoundly affect investment and planning of power grid corporations and many other aspects. In this paper, based on policies of the TDP reform, an accounting model of provincial power grid TDP is established. On this basis, an evaluation method based on system dynamics model is proposed for analyzing the impact of the TDP reform on power grid investment. Considering three influencing factors, i.e. grid investment evaluation, grid planning mode and government regulation policy, a model for TDP evolution and power grid investment capacity is established, and quantitative relationship between causal feedbacks of these two variables is established. Based on case simulation, impact of the TDP reform on provincial grid investment and its various influencing factors are quantitatively analyzed.