新常态下我国货币政策框架体系选择:单一型规则抑或混合型规则

The Choice of China's Monetary Policy Framework System under the New Normal Period: Single Rules or Mixed Rules

通过构建具有微观基础的DSGE模型和时变特征的SV-TVP-FAVAR模型,理论模拟与实证检验了我国货币政策的宏观经济效应。结果显示,单一型规则和混合型规则的宏观经济效应在冲击极值、效应维度和收敛性上存在差异,价格型货币政策的产出效应显著,数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策的通货膨胀效应相当,单一型规则的调控效果有下降趋势;单一型规则和混合型规则的冲击周期相当,混合型规则对产出的冲击极值更大,对通货膨胀的冲击极值更小,混合型规则的宏观经济效应优于单一型规则。新常态下,"价主量辅"货币政策的宏观经济调控效果显著,更适合成为我国调控宏观经济的货币政策规则。

Based on the DSGE model with microeconomic foundations and SV-TVP-FAVAR model with time-varying characteristics, this paper theoretically simulates and empirically examines the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in China. The results show that the macroeconomic effects of single rules and mixed rules are different in terms of shock extreme value, effect dimension and convergence; the output effects of price-based monetary policy are obvious, the inflation effects of quantitative and price-based monetary policy are almost similar, and the macro- control effects of single rules have a downward trend. The shock cycle of single and mixed rules is almost same, the mixed rules have greater shocks on output and smaller shocks on inflation in terms of extreme value, and the macroeconomic effects of mixed rules are better than single rules. Under the new normal period, the monetary policy of ＂price-based supplemented by quantitative＂ has significant macro-control effects, which is more suitable to be the monetary policy rules regulating the China＇s macroeconomic.