互联网发展对全球价值链贸易的影响评估

Effect of Internet Development on Global Value Chain Trade

互联网有效降低了协调和沟通成本,使得国际分工模式再次发生深刻变化,成为全球价值链深入发展的关键力量。利用2000~2014年世界投入产出表和Wang et al.(2013)贸易增加值的分解方法进行测算,进而利用双边链接数据作为互联网发展代理变量,实证分析了互联网对全球价值链贸易的影响。结果表明:互联网对出口国内增加值影响不明显,但对出口国外增加值和中间品跨国出口有显著正影响;全球价值链"互联网化"对发展中国家的影响有明显的滞后性;"互联网化"对发达经济体国外增加值有更大的促进作用,对发展中经济体中间品贸易跨国流动有更大的影响。

Internet has effectively reduced the cost of coordination and communication, making the pattern of international division of labor profoundly changed and becoming a key force for the in-depth development of global value chain. This paper uses the World Input-Output Table 2000-2014 and Wang et al. （2013） to calculate the trade in value-added, and then takes bilateral link data as a proxy for Internet development, empirically analyzing the effect of the Internet on global value chain trade. The results show that： the effect of the internet on domestic value-added exports is not obvious, but it has a significant positive effect on the foreign value added and the pure double counted terms of intermediate goods. There is an obvious lag in the effect of the ＂Internetization＂ of global value chain on developing countries. ＂Internetization＂ has a greater effect on promoting the foreign value-added in developed economies and the transnational flows of intermediate goods in developing economies.