国家形象、交易信任与出口持续时间——来自中国产品层面的证据

Country Image, Trust in Transaction and Duration of Export:Evidences from Product-Level of China

一国与他国贸易关系的稳定性受到了双方交易信任水平的影响,在信息不对称广泛存在的国际市场上,交易成本是决定双边贸易关系能否长期维系的重要因素。基于2006—2013年我国对45个国家产品层面出口数据,使用BBC全球影响力调查结果衡量国家形象,采用生存分析法和二元因变量分析方法检验我国在贸易伙伴国眼中的国家形象对我国产品出口持续时间的影响。研究发现,除了传统交易信任因素之外,我国在贸易伙伴国处获得的评价越好,对其出口持续时间就越长、出口失败风险也越低,即国家层面的信任能够弥补出口产品层面的交易信任缺失。此外,国家形象对出口持续时间的促进效应在同质品、消费品上,以及低评国、发达国家身上体现得尤为显著。

The stability of a country＇s trade relationship with other countries will be affected by the level of trust between the two sides; transaction cost is an important factor to determine whether a bilateral trade can be maintained for a long time in the international market with widely existed information asymmetry. On the basis of the export product data of China to 45 countries between 2006-2013, this paper adopts the results of BBC global influence survey to measure the country image and employs the survival analysis method and the binary dependent variable analytical method to check the influence of China＇s country image in the eyes of its trade partners on the export duration of China＇s products. The findings show that in addition to the factors related to the traditional trade trust, the better China＇s country image judged by the trade partners, the longer the duration of its ex- port and the fewer the risks of export failure will be, namely, the lack of trust in the transaction of export products can be offset by trust of a country. In addition, the positive effect of country image on the duration of export is much more significant in homogeneous goods, consumer goods, lower-evaluated countries and developed countries.