近年来美国战略思想界对华政策的观念转变及其成因分析

Current Views of American Strategic ExpertsonU.S. Diplomatic PolicyTowards China in Recent Years

近年来，随着中国的快速崛起与中关两国竞争日趋加剧，中关关系进入了大变动、大调整时期。美国战略思想界纷纷发表各种文章、报告来阐述对美国对华政策的看法。目前关国战略思想界对华政策主张主要存在三种声音：第一，加强对华制衡；第二，中关应相互妥协顺应；第三，对华接触加制衡。从这些观点可以看出，当前美国战略思想界主张对华强硬的声音居多，而主张对华顺应的温和派的声音逐渐减少，美国社会整体对华政治气氛趋向保守。这种现象的产生既有国际体系层面中美实力对比变化的原因，也有美国国内政治层面以及美国政治精英对华认知方面的原因。

Recent years, with the rapid rise of China and the increasing competition between China and the United States, Sino-U.S. relations have entered a period of great changes and adjustments. American strategic experts have published various articles and reports to expound their views on U.S. policy towards China. To sum up, there are three distinct voices in American strategic thinkers on U.S. China policy： Firstly, checks and balances against China; Secondly, mutual compromise between the two countries; Thirdly, engagement blended with balance. Thus, at present, the majority of American strategic thinkers tend to advocate a strong stance against China, while the voice of moderates who advocates compliance with China is gradually decreasing. The overall political atmosphere of American society tends to be conservative. The emergence of this phenomenon has three underlying causes： the evolution of disparity in national capabilities between China and the United States at the level of the international system, the changes in U.S. domestic politics and in perception of U.S. political elites on China.