论政治转型的“自主模式”和“约束模式”——对埃及与乌克兰的案例比较研究

“Autonomy Model” and “Constrained Model” of Political Transition——A Comparative Case Study on Egypt and Ukraine

基于对现有政治转型研究文献的讨论，本文提出了一种新的政治转型分析框架——“自主模式”和“约束模式”，以修正和补充原有的研究。在比较埃及和乌克兰政治转型经验的基础上，我们发现结构与行动者因素不同的关系致使两国转型的模式完全相异：埃及属于自主模式，行动者间力量强弱的变化主导了转型的过程和结果；而乌克兰的政治状况由结构因素尤其是地缘政治结构所彤寝．其转型娄型归于约柬模式。

By reviewing the existing approaches to political transition, this paper proposes a new analytical framework based on ＂autonomy model＂ and ＂constrained model＂ to explain the process of transition. Based on the comparative studies of political transition in Egypt and Ukraine, this paper argues that the difference in the relationship between structure and agent leads to the different models of political transition in this two countries： Egypt belongs to the ＂autonomy model＂, in which the change of the strength between the actors determines the process and result of the transformation. By contrast, the political situation of Ukraine is shaped largely by the structural factors, especially the geopolitical structure, and thus its transformation type could be seen as a ＂constrained model＂.