基于主成分分析的中压配电网供电可靠性评估

Power supply reliability assessment of mid-voltage distribution network based on principal component analysis

针对专家评判法在中压配电网供电可靠性评估确定指标权重的过程中容易受主观因素影响的问题,提出一种基于主成分分析的中压配电网供电可靠性评估方法。建立中压配电网供电可靠性评估指标体系,构造待评估对象的评估指标矩阵,并将其依次处理为归一化指标矩阵和标准化指标矩阵;通过对标准化指标矩阵的主成分分析,确定起主要作用的主成分,并以此求取综合评估函数中各可靠性指标的权重;建立待评估对象的供电可靠性综合评估函数,进而求得待评估对象的可靠性评估值;结合各指标权重及其归一化指标值绘制待评估对象的各指标满意度及重要性区域图,为中压配电网具有更高可靠性的改造提供了量化、直观的科学依据。工程实例证明了所提方法的有效性和实用性。

Aiming at the problem that the expert judgment method is easily influenced by subjective factors in the process of determining the index weight for power supply reliability evaluation of mid-voltage distribution network, an evaluation method based on principal component analysis is proposed. The evaluation index system of power supply reliability for mid-voltage distribution network is established, and the evaluation index matrix of the objects to be evaluated is constructed,which is successively converted to the normalized index matrix and standardized index ma- trix. The principal components playing the leading role are determined according to the principal component analysis of standardized index matrix, and the weights of each reliability index of the comprehensive evaluation function are calculated. The comprehensive evaluation function is then established to obtain the reliability evaluation value of the objects to be evaluated. Combined with the weights of each index and its normalized index value,the quadrant dia- grams of satisfaction and importance for each index are drawn,which provides a quantitative and intuitive scientific tool for the reconstruction of mid-voltage distribution network with higher reliability. The validity and practicality of the proposed method are verified by an engineering example.