2018年东北亚经贸合作形势及发展走向

Northeast Asia Economic and Trade Development and Cooperation Trend in 2018

2017年上半年,受地缘政治因素影响,东北亚双边及多边经贸合作遇到较多困难。经济增长放缓,国际货币基金组织及各国智库也都拉低了对各国经济增长的预期。但进入下半年,随着美国总统特朗普访华、APEC领导人峰会在越南岘港的召开及东北亚主要经济体有效接触,东北亚经贸合作出现积极态势。预计在区域内主要国家共识日益增强的背景下,2018年东北亚经贸发展将呈总体向好态势。但受世界经济增长乏力、地区复杂局势变化影响,2018年东北亚经贸合作不会一帆风顺。

In the first half of 2017, due to geopolitical factors, bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation in North- east Asia encountered more difficulties. Slowing economic growth, the International Monetary Fund and national think tanks have also lowered expectations of economic growth in various countries. However, in the second half of the year, with the visit of Presi- dent Trump of the United States, the opening of summit of APEC leaders in Vietnam and the effective contacts of the major econo- mies in Northeast Asia, the economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia has shown a positive trend. It is expected that un- der the background of growing consensus among the major countries in the region, the economic and trade development in North- east Asia in 2018 will assume an overall positive trend. However, due to the anemic economic growth in the world and the chan- ges in regional complexities, the economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia in 2018 will not be easy.