计算机联锁系统故障预测模型及应用

Prognostic Evaluation Model and Application for Computer Interlocking System

计算机联锁系统在铁路系统中起着重要作用,目前其故障后维修的管理模式无法适应铁路快速发展的要求。以CBTC系统中应用的计算机联锁系统为例,提出基于部件故障数学模型和整体系统故障树分析构建的预测模型,得到系统失效概率趋势。系统失效趋势图表明计算机系统运行状态分为3个阶段,各阶段的维修策略与故障事件关键重要度概率大小特点相关。该方法为系统故障状态预测、维修决策提供了理论依据。

Computer interlocking system plays an important role in railway, but its breakdown maintenance cannot stratify requirements of fast developing railway. Prediction model was developed based on mathematical model of components and entire system fault tree analysis, and interlocking system failure probability trend was calculated in the application background of CBTC system. System trend diagram implied that it had three operating condition stages, and corresponding maintenance strategies was linked with critical importance probability of failure events in each stage. The method provided theoretical basis for system prognostic evaluation, maintenance strategy.