美元走强是否可以持续？

Can the US Dollar Stay Strong？

短期来看，受到美国经济超预期增长、新兴国家货币大幅贬值、欧洲经济增长乏力等因素的影响，美元仍会维持在高位。但是美元在中长期的走势却面临着更多的不确定性，目前美国国内政治分裂严重，特朗普深陷政治丑闻，而其在全球范围内挥舞的贸易大棒必然会伤及美国自身。当特朗普税改利好耗尽，过高的财政赤字会使得美元走弱。

In the short-term, the US dollar will remain at a high level due to the stronger-than-expected economy growth in the United States, the sharp depreciation of emerging countries＇ currencies, and the weak economic growth in Europe. However, the US dollar is facing increasing uncertainties in the medium and long term. At present, there is a serious political disintegration in the United States. Trump is deeply stuck in political scandals, and the big stick of trade he is wielding worldwide will inevitably hurt the United States itself. When the benefits of the tax reform are exhausted, a fiscal deficit that is too high will push the US dollar going weaker.