中美贸易战对国内债市影响与前景展望

Impact of Sino-US Trade War on China＇s Bond Market and Market Outlook

近期债市利率走势波动加快，从4月中美公布相互惩罚关税清单，到5月中美达成停打贸易战协议，再到6月美国违背此前谈判共识，拟针对总值2500亿美元的中国产品征收关税，债市利率随之呈现出一波三折的走势。中美贸易战未来走势及其对债市的影响也引发了资本市场的关注和疑虑。中美贸易战的表与里的影响是什么？其影响债市利率走势的路径是什么？债市未来前景如何？本文拟对上述问题进行分析和探讨。

Recently, the bond yields fluctuated at an accelerated speed. In April, China and the United States announced their respective list of retaliatory tariffs. On mid-May, China and the United States reached an agreement, yet in June, the United States violated the agreement and intended to impose extra tariffs on US$ 250 billion worth of Chinese goods. The bond yields in China then followed a twisted path. The future development of the Sino-US trade war and its impact on the bond market have triggered concerns and doubts in the capital market. What would be the external and internal impacts of the Sino-US trade war？ How would the trade war impact the bond yields？ What would be the future prospect of the bond market？ This article intends to analyze and discuss the above issues.