退欧对英国经济的影响

Impact of Brexit on the UK economy

退欧公投以来，英国经济增速有所放缓，预计短期内将延续温和增长态势。过渡期结束后，实质性退欧带来的政策变动将对经济和金融市场形成冲击，还可能在中长期内通过贸易、投资和移民等渠道影响英国生产率和经济增长前景，具体影响程度取决于英国最终以何种方式退欧。文章回顾了退欧公投以来英国经济的运行情况，结合英欧经贸关系现状，分情景讨论了退欧对英国经济的影响。

The UK economic growth has slowed down since the Brexit referendum and is expected to continue with modest growth in the short term. Following the end of the transition phase, the policy changes brought about by the substantive Brexit will have an impact on the economy and financial markets, and may affect the UK＇s productivity and economic growth prospects in the medium to long term via channels such as international trade, investment and immigration. How the impact will be may depend on the ultimate Brexit models. The article reviews the UK economy since the Brexit referendum, and discusses the impact of Brexit on the UK economy in different scenarios in combination with the analysis on the status quo of the UK-EU economic and trade relations.