中国城市脆弱性的时空变化及其内在机理——基于“五普”、“六普”及《中国城市统计年鉴》数据的分析

Spatial and temporal change and its inner mechanism of china's urban vulnerability: an analysis based on the Fifth Census and other resources data

基于全国第五次、第六次人口普查的数据及《中国城市统计年鉴》的数据,构建了中国城市脆弱性综合评价体系,探讨了城市脆弱性的时空变化规律及其内在机理。结果显示:中国城市脆弱性总体呈下降趋势,低、较低脆弱性城市占比增加;各地区之间差异显著,中部地区城市的脆弱性下降幅度最大;从内在机理的视角来看,暴露性和应对能力比敏感性对城市脆弱性的影响更大;在一定范围内,城市的脆弱性随着城市规模的增加而下降,超出某一临界值后,城市的脆弱性随着城市规模的增加而升高;功能复合型城市的脆弱性较低,综合性城市的脆弱性低于资源型城市;城市脆弱性与城市布局形态有关,集中型城市的脆弱性高于分散型城市。

Based on the national fifth and sixth census data and the urban statistical yearbook of 2001 and 2011,this essay constructs the comprehensive evaluation system of China＇s urban system vulnerability and discusses the temporal and spatial changes of urban vulnerability and its inherent mechanism. The results show that： overall,the vulnerability level of the city declined,and low and lower level of vulnerability of the city accounted for the increase. The differences between the various regions of China are significant and the vulnerability level of the city in central area of China declines the most. From the analysis of the intrinsic mechanism of angle,exposure and coping ability can affect the vulnerability level of city more than sensitivity.Within a certain range,the vulnerability level of the city with the size increase behave downward trend,but beyond a critical value,the vulnerability level of the city gradually increased with the increase of city scale. The vulnerability level of composite function city is low and the vulnerability level of comprehensive city is lower than the resources city. The vulnerability level of the city related to city layout,centralized city vulnerability is higher than that of dispersed city.