基于耦合与脱钩视角的江苏城镇化碳排放效应实证研究

Empirical Research on Carbon Emission Effect of Urbanization in Jiangsu Province from Perspective of Coupling and Decoupling

将江苏省域的情景化信息充分纳入分析框架,同时基于脱钩与耦合两种视角来更为全面、深入地解析城镇化的碳排放效应。结果表明:江苏的能耗结构已有所改善,但短期内难以得到根本性的改变,城镇化加速为碳排放增长带来巨大压力;江苏城镇化发展与碳排放增长之间在形成较强的耦合性关系之后又开始减弱,近几年正逐渐向脱钩状态过渡,越来越稳定且接近于绝对脱钩状态;遵循科学的低碳城镇发展规划,建立低碳的城镇基础设施,形成低碳的能源消费结构等等,都是推进低碳城镇化的必由之路。

This paper fully integrates the scenario information of Jiangsu Province into the analytical framework.From both perspectives of decoupling and coupling it may make a more comprehensive and in-depth analysis on the carbon emission effect of urbanization.The results indicate that the energy consumption structure has been improved,but it is difficult to get fundamental changes in the short term.And the actual background of accelerated urbanization has put great pressure on the growth of carbon emission.The strong coupling relationship between urbanization development and carbon emission growth had formed and then began to weaken.In recent years,it has been moving towards decoupling state and becoming increasing stable and close to absolute decoupling state.Following the scientific low-carbon urban development planning,constructing low-carbon urban infrastructure,building low-carbon energy consumption structure and so on are all necessary ways to promote low-carbon urbanization.