婚前同居与中国女性的婚姻稳定性:自选择效应还是测度问题

Premarital Cohabitation and Marital Stability of Chinese Women:Self-selection Effect or Measure Problem

大多研究发现,婚前同居与婚姻稳定性负相关,其中自选择效应和测度问题被视为二者负向关系的主要致因。基于2014年中国家庭追踪调查的女性样本,实证分析了婚前同居和中国女性婚姻稳定性之间的关系,并进一步检验了自选择效应和测度问题在其中作用的相对大小。研究结果显示:总的来说,中国女性的婚前同居与婚姻稳定性负相关;随着同居在改革开放前后出生的女性中的蔓延,婚前同居与婚姻稳定性的负向关系消失;自选择效应基本主导了中国女性婚前同居与婚姻稳定性之间的负向关系;虽然测度问题也推动了中国女性的婚前同居与婚姻稳定性关系的负向变化,但与自选择效应相比,测度问题的影响要小得多。

bstract： Most studies found that premarital cohabitation and marital stability are negatively correlated, and the self-selection effect and measuring problems are regarded as the main cause of the negative relationship. Based on the samples of women from China Family Tracking Survey in 2014, the relationship between premarital cohabitation and Chinese women＇s marital stability is empirically analyzed, and the causation mechanism of self-selection effect and measuring problems are tested further too in this paper. The findings are that the premarital cohabitation is negatively to the marital stability of Chinese women in general, however the negative relation get to disappear among the women born around the reform and opening up policy. The self-selection effect basically dominates the negative correlation between premarital cohabitation and marital stability of Chinese women while the negative impacts from the measuring problems is much smaller compared with the self-selection effect.