清洁能源补贴改革对产业发展和环境污染影响研究——基于动态CGE模型分析

Impacts of the Clean Energy Subsidy Reform on Industry Development and Environment Pollution: An Analysis Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

清洁能源补贴是促进我国相关产业发展和实现资源环境目标的重要政策工具。文章采用不同政策场景下差异性清洁能源补贴模式,模拟清洁能源补贴改革对相关产业发展和环境系统的影响,由此探讨主要污染物和碳排放影响的政策效应。研究结果显示,清洁能源补贴政策有利于促进能源价格改革,提高能源和工业等相关产业的总产出,并改变化石与清洁能源间的替代弹性,有效改善能源消费结构,降低主要污染物排放强度;但不同补贴方案影响的差异性较大,应采用"国家+强地方"的方案设计,以发挥清洁能源补贴改革的环境效应。

Clean energy subsidies are important policy tools to promote the development of related industries and achieve resource and environmental goals in China. In view of a series of serious environmental pollution problems caused by fossil energy consumption, the call for increasing the clean energy use and improving the utilization of clean energy to improve and optimize the energy consumption structure has become more and more intense in recent years.However, previous studies have focused on the energy price reform and the impact of the subsidy scale on the social economy, focusing on the analysis of the process and effect of energy subsidy policies on macroeconomic operations while lacking quantitative research on the impact of relevant industries and environmental systems. In the clean energy subsidy program, different subsidy policy schemes are quite different. How much influence does the clean energy subsidy reform design have on different industry development and environmental pollution control？ It is worth further research. The paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model（DCGE） to appraise the impact of clean energy subsidies on industry development and environmental governance based on a ＂national ＋ local＂ scenario from a long-term latitude. The results show that, overall speaking, clean energy subsidies are helpful to promote the energy price reform. Due to the price advantage brought by clean energy subsidy policies, elasticity of substitution between fossil energy and clean energy can be changed greatly, which will increase the total output of related industries, improve the energy consumption structure, and reduce the emission intensity of major pollutants. However, the impacts of different subsidy programs greatly differ from each other. National basic subsidy policies can improve the competitiveness of clean energy to some extent, and strong local subsidy policies can be more effective to promote the development of clean energy industries, improve energy consumption per unit GDP and per capita energy surplus, reduce the environmental damage, and optimize the energy consumption structure. Therefore, the use of the ＂national ＋ strong local＂ design is more conducive to clean energy industry development and environmental governance. The main contributions of this paper are to introduce factors such as clean energy industry and resource environment into the subsidy reform research, effectively assess the differences between different programs on industrial development and environmental systems, and study the subsidy intensity of different topics such as national and local governments in subsidy policies. The impact of alternative elasticity, industrial development and environmental pollution control makes clean energy subsidy policies more in line with the reality of social development. The results of this paper can improve the feasibility of the clean energy subsidy program, and provide reference for the formulation and sustainable development of clean energy subsidy policies related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood.