影子银行、金融稳定与货币政策

Shadow Banking, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy

商业银行的顺经济周期特征和影子银行的风险承担机制,在紧缩性货币政策冲击下可能会导致影子银行的逆周期扩张。研究表明,这一金融特征在紧缩性货币政策冲击下会相互强化并使经济产生滞涨风险,而传统上紧盯通货膨胀和产出缺口的Taylor规则无法有效抑制其对宏观经济的影响;货币政策当局应该将社会信贷总量纳入到传统Taylor规则中并对其做出一定程度的反应;作为衡量影子银行和商业银行之间信贷条件的贷款利率差这一观测变量,当其波动程度超过一定范围时,货币政策也应对其做出反应。消除金融歧视和金融抑制具有最好的社会福利效果,对金融变量做出反应的货币政策也应避免政策工具的冲突和政策目标的叠加。

The pro-economic cycle charac teristics of the commercial banks and the risk-taking mechanisms of the shadow banks may result in the counter-cyclical expansion of the shadow banks under the impact of the tight-money policy. The study shows that this financial characteristics will strengthen mutually and bring stagflation risks to the economy under the impact of the tight-money policy, while the Taylor rule which traditionally focus on inflation and output gap cannot effectively inhibit its impact on macro-economy. The monetary policy authority should bring the total social credit amount into the traditional Taylor rule and make a certain degree of response to it. The interest rate difference of credit used to measure the credit conditions between shadow banks and commercial banks should be regarded as an observation variable, and the monetary policy should respond to it when its volatility exceeds a certain extent. To eliminate financial discrimination and financial repression has the best result of social welfare; the monetary policy responding to the financial variables should also avoid the conflicts between policy instruments and the overlaying of policy targets.