基于LMDI法的湖南省碳排放强度影响因素解析

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Intensity in Hunan Based on LMDI Method

利用2005—2015年湖南省煤炭、石油、天然气三种主要能源的终端消费量,计算逐年碳排放量与碳排放强度,运用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)探讨了产业结构、能源强度和能源结构对于碳排放强度的贡献率。结果表明:2005—2015年湖南省碳排放强度降低了0.339 t/万元。其中,能源强度对碳强度降低的贡献率最大,为94.5%,能源结构偏小,为16.4%,而产业结构抑制了碳强度的降低,贡献率为-10.9%。因此,湖南省节能减排应着重从优化产业结构、降低能源强度等方面着手。

Based on the final energy consumption quantity of coal, oil and natural gas in HunanProvince from 2005 to 2015, the annual carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity were cal-culated. The contribution of industrial structure, energy intensity and energy structure to carbonemission intensity was discussed by means of logarithmic average weight decomposition method（LMDI）. The results showed that the carbon emission intensity of Hunan province decreased by0.339 tons per 10 thousand yuan from 2005 to 2015. Among them, energy intensity had the great-est contribution to the reduction of carbon intensity, accounted for 94.5%, the energy structure wassmaller, 16.4%, and the industrial structure inhibited the reduction of carbon intensity, the contri-bution rate was -10.9%. Therefore, energy conservation and emission reduction in Hunan provinceshould focus on optimizing industrial structure and reducing energy intensity.