基于地方政府资产负债表的地方债务规模与风险估算——来自中国七个资源型省份的经验证据

Local Government Debt Scale Estimating and Risk Evaluating Based on Local Governmental Balance Sheet——Empirical Evidence from 7 Resource-based Provinces in China

基于Hana（1998）的政府债务矩阵以及我国1994年的预算法,创造性地构建了我国地方政府资产负债表,同时以七个资源型省份2003—2015年的数据为样本,采用估算法估计了资源型省份的显性负债,并借鉴压力测试的思想,分别以0.3、0.6和0.8为压力系数,估算了包含或有负债的债务规模以及中央-地方＂父子关系＂下的债务规模。研究结果表明,比照国际通行的3%的债务标准赤字率和0.6的债务规模/GDP比率,全国的政府性债务是总体可控的,但资源型省份的债务风险凸显,需要加以警惕。

Based on Hana（1998） government debt matrix and the Budget Lawin 1994, we creatively construct the local government balance sheet in China and estimate the dominat liabilities in 7 resource-based procinces during 2003 to 2015 based on the estimation mathod. Then we introduce the method of stress test to estimate the debt scale containing contingent liabilities and the debt scale under the paternity relationship between the central government and the locals using the pressure factors of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.8. We conclude that, compared with the international standards of 3% debt standard deficit ratio and 0.6 debt-to-GDP ratio, the total scale of government debt is under control, but the debt risk in resource-based provinces is very high and need to be cautious.