考虑拥堵关联的城市主干道运行可靠性建模

Reliability Modeling of Urban Arterials Considering Congestion Correlation

城市主干道交通流运行有显著的随机性和不确定性.在拥堵情况下,连续路段间的交通状态关联显著影响城市主干道的运行可靠性.为准确描述和定量分析路段间拥堵关联对主干道运行可靠性的影响,基于网格搜索算法的拥堵关联判别方法被提出,结合不同交通状态出现概率与对应交通状态下的行程时间分布特征,通过双层蒙特卡洛仿真建立了主干道行程时间可靠性模型.并以青岛市福州南路为实例,利用定点检测器和卡口电警数据的多源融合,对模型进行了验证.结果表明,新建模型更加符合主干道交通拥堵时空演化机理及其可靠性评价.

There are significant randomness and uncertainties in traffic flow operation of urban arterials. In the case of congestion, the correlation of traffic state between successive sections significantly affects the operational reliability of urban arterials. In order to accurately describe and quantitatively analyze the impact of congestion association between road sections on the reliability of main roads, a congestion association discrimination method based on grid search algorithm was proposed. Combined with the occurrence probability of different traffic states and the travel time distribution characteristics of corresponding traffic states, the travel time reliability model of main roads was established through double-layer Monte Carlo simulation. Taking Fuzhou South Road in Qingdao as an example, the model was verified by multi-source fusion of fixed-point detector and bayonet electric alarm data.The results show that the new model is more in line with the temporal and spatial evolution mechanism of traffic congestion on main roads and its reliability evaluation.