齐齐哈尔市房地产泡沫测度预警与防范

Measurement,early warning and prevention of real estate bubble in Qiqihar

从三四线城市齐齐哈尔市研究入手,从生产供给、购买交易和消费需求三个角度对该市房地产市场状况进行综合分析,并计算出房地产开发投资占全社会固定资产投资的比值、房地产开发投资增长率与GDP增长率的比值、房屋空置率、房价增长率与GDP增长率的比值、房价收入比这五个指标的数值,最后用熵权法和功效系数法得出综合预警系数K值,对齐齐哈尔市的房地产泡沫进行测度分析,并提出合理可行的防范建议。

The paper first analyzed three angles and five indicators of Qiqihar real estate market status. Those five indicators were the ratio of real estate investment in the total social investment in fixed assets, the ratio of the real estate development investment growth rate and GDP growth rate, housing vacancy rate, the ratio of housing-price growth rate and GDP growth rate, Housing-price-to-income Ratio. Qiqihar real estate bub- ble degree of calendar year was indicated by the value of K which was calculated by using the entropy method and the efficacy coefficient method. The results show- that Qiqihar City had a slight real estate bubble.