基于LEAP模型的未来大同市环境污染物排放预测

Prediction of Future Environment Pollutants Emission in Datong City Based on LEAP

文章基于大同市统计年鉴,结合实际情况,建立了大同市环境污染物排放量预测LEAP模型,对大同市2015～2030年的环境污染物排放量进行预测。结果表明:到2020年,SO_2排放强度为4. 7 kg/万元GDP,COD排放强度5. 49 kg/万元GDP,城镇生活垃圾无害化处理率75. 8%,工业固体废物处置利用率90%;到2030年,SO_2排放强度为2. 3 kg/万元GDP,COD排放强度4. 2 kg/万元GDP,城镇生活垃圾无害化处理率90. 6%,工业固体废物处置利用率90%,均可达到大同生态市建设指标体系及拟定阶段的规划目标。

In this paper,on the basis of Datong Statistical Yearbook,with regard to the actual situation,a LEAP module predicting environment pollutants emission in Datong City was established,and environment pollutants emission in Datong City in 2015~2030 was also predicted.The results showed that by 2020,the emission intensity of SO 2 would be 4.7 kg/10 000 yuan GDP and that of COD would be 5.49 kg/10 000 yuan GDP.The non-hazardous disposal rate of urban household garbage would be 75.8%,and the disposal utilization rate of industrial solid wastes would be 90%.In 2030,the emission intensity of SO 2 would be 2.3 kg/10 000 yuan GDP,and that of COD would be 4.2 kg/10 000 yuan GDP.The non-hazardous disposal rate of urban household garbage would be 90.6%,and the disposal utilization rate of industrial solid wastes would be 90%.All the above indicators could meet the planning objectives developed in the indicator system of ecological construction of Datong City as well as in the draft phase.