我国中部城乡经济协调发展的时空格局研究

Spatial Pattern of Urban-Rural Economic Coordinated Development of Central China

从城乡经济联系、城乡经济增长、城乡经济差异三个方面构建了城乡经济协调发展评价模型,对中部地区城乡经济协调发展时序特征进行了分析,并对中部地区市域、县域的城乡经济协调发展空间格局进行了分析,同时对空间格局的影响因素进行了分析,借助2016年县域数据进行回归分析探索空间特征的影响因素.结果发现:1)2001—2016年中部地区城乡经济协调发展趋势呈现波动上升,中部六省发展曲线则不尽相同,河南、江西城乡经济协调曲线走势十分相似,呈现波动上升状态;湖南、安徽城乡经济协调曲线发展趋势异同参半,安徽在2010年之后波幅较大;湖北、山西城乡经济协调曲线在2007年之前波动趋势近乎相反;且城乡增长率差异系数是城乡经济协调发展的主要制约因素,但性质为负. 2)就空间特征而言,自2000年以来中部地区的城乡经济协调水平总体由核心城市向外围边缘区减弱,且这种规律逐渐显著;空间关联类型则以显著HH区和显著LL区为主,其中市域尺度下的显著HH区在湖南省西部有稳定集中分布区,显著LL区在湖北武汉附近有稳定分布区,且集中分布区呈现扩大趋势.县域尺度下的显著HH区主要分布在湖南西部和山西西部,其中湖南西部的面积逐渐减少,显著LL区主要有两个集中分布区,一个是河南中北部,另一个是湖北西部和长株潭城市群地区形成的连绵区. 3)从空间特征影响因素看,信息化水平、第一产业水平、农业机械化程度、现代服务业水平的提升,以及社会零售品市场的扩大有助于推进城乡经济协调发展;工业化进程和教育水平的提升及财政支出的增加对缩小城乡差距方面的作用不明显.

Based on the connotation of urban-rural economic development, we built an evaluation model containing three dimensions, which contain urban-rural economic correlation, urban-rural economic growth and urban-rural economic difference. The spatio-temporal pattern of urban and rural economic coordination in the Central China has been analyzed. At the same time, the influence factors of spatial pattern were analyzed by spatial regression model at city and county level. The results were shown as follows. Firstly, the trend of urban-rural economic coordinated development fluctuated in the whole period, but the trend of each province in Central China was not very similar to others from 2001 to 2015. For example, the degree of urban-rural economic coordinated development of Henan and Jiangxi was fluctuated rising, Hunan and Anhui was changed slowly in early period and grew rapidly in late period. The trends of Hubei and Shanxi were different from each other after 2007, and the trend of Shanxi was more complex than Hubei＇ s. What＇ s more, the growth rate coefficient of urban-rural economic coordinated development was the major restrictive factor, and its effect was negative. Secondly, by using spatial analysis techniques, we found that the degree of urban-rural economic coordinated development generally weaken fl＇om core cities to external regions in Central China, and this spatial trend increased apparently fl＇om 2001 to 2015. Spatial correlation types were dominated by significant HH regions and significant LL regions by ESDA model. Significant HH regions were concentrated in the west of Hunan Province, and the spatial scope was changed not obvious at city level. Significant LL regions were steadily distributed near to Wuhan city and concentrated a large interlocking region, and expanded to Hunan Province recently at city level. Significant HH regions were mainly distributed in the western of Hunan Province and Shanxi Province, the spatial scope reduced in recently years at county level. The significant LL regions were concentrated in north central Henan Province, the spatial concentrated scope reduced in 2005. The concentrated distributed scope enlarged and formed two continuous regions in 2010 and 2014, one was the Henan＇ s concentrated region, the other was in central Hubei Province and Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration regions. Thirdly, from the influence factors of spatial characteristics, the informatization level, the improvement of the first industry level, the improvement of modern service level, the industrialization process and the expansion of the social retail market can nalTOW the urban-rural gap. The increasing of agricultural mechanization, the improvement of education level and the increase in fiscal expenditure are not obvious in the near term to narrow the gap between urban and rural regions.