水库水电站引水隧洞塌方风险模拟研究

Landslide Risk Simulation Study on Convey Tunnel of Reservoir Power Station

引水隧洞作为水电站的关键工程,其安全性能将直接影响到水电站正常效益的发挥和服役寿命。据此,文章利用功效系数法构建了隧洞塌方风险评估模型,结合隧洞塌方风险影响因子基本内涵将其划分为区间型、稳定型、极大型和极小型变量,然后对各指标单项功效系数进行求解并对指标权重系数利用博弈理论进行分析从而得总功效系数,并以贵州省毕节市的某水利工程为例验证了模型的适用性与可靠性。

As the key project of a hydropower station,the safety of a water diversion tunnel will impact directly normal benefits and serving life of the power station. Based on this,this paper is to establish a risk evaluation model of tunnel landslide with the efficacy coefficient method,combined with the basic contents of tunnel landslide risk influence factors,to divide variables into interval type,stable type,extremely large type and extremely small type,afterwards,to solve each coefficient with single efficacy,and to analyze the index weight coefficient with game theory,finally,to obtain the coefficient of total efficacy. This study verified the suitability and reliability of the model with a water conservancy project in Bijie City as the example.