供求视角下住房公积金对中国房价影响分析

The Impact of the Housing Provident Fund on House Price in China

运用供求理论分析住房公积金对房价的影响,经实证检验,发现住房公积金促使中国城市房价上涨,但区域差异明显。一线城市住房公积金贷款对房价影响较大,二线城市住房公积金主要通过影响流动人口定居进而影响房价,三线城市住房公积金覆盖率较低,以致住房公积金贷款对房价影响较小。此外,由于各城市住房公积金支持建设的保障性住房供给不足,难以平抑房价。基于此,应鼓励一线城市流动人口向周边城市流动,提高二、三线城市住房公积金覆盖率,实行住房公积金差别信贷政策,引入社会资本建设公共租赁住房并严控房产交易。

This paper uses supply and demand theory- to analyze the impact of housing provident fund on house price, finding that the fund prompts urban house price to rise regionally through empirical test. Housing provident fund loans in first - tier have a relatively large impact on house price. The fund of second - tier cities have indirect effect on the price by affect- ing the settlement of floating population. Owing to the lowest coverage of the provident fund in third - tier cities, the loan has least impact on house price. In addition, due to insufficient supply, urban affordable houses provided by the fund are not able to stabilize housing prices. Based on this, we encourage the flow of migrants from first - tier cities to neigh- boring cities and reeomn^end to expand the coverage of housing provident fund in second - and third - tier cities, imple- ment differential housing credit policies for housing provident fund, introduce social capital to build public rental hous- ing, and strictly control real estate transactions.